MAPs for Ukraine? by Nataliya Kazionnova, director, EISC (Donetsk, Ukraine) 

The Future of the New Eastern Europe
e-PINE think-tank meeting
Vilnius, October, 2, 2008

MAPs for Ukraine?

My specialization is not Euroatlantic integration of Ukraine but studying and implementation integration into EU using experience of Lithuania. However I attentively follow for the Euroatlantic integration and development relations between NATO and Ukraine. Ukraine meets many problems during integration processes. It is connected with a lot of reasons.

Today our society isn’t ready to accept integration initiative as national idea. Ukrainian people accept integration to Europe Union ‘in general’ but the level of the pro-Russian public feeling is high, especially at the South and Eastern Ukraine, less in the central part of the country and absolutely others general mood we can see in Western Ukraine where population already see themselves in Europe Union and NATO.

Generally speaking we can talk about depth contradictions at the Ukrainian society. In my opinion we have such situation because there in Ukraine haven’t created state policy by integration questions. It applies to problems of the joining NATO and EU.

At the conditions of our conference we discuss NATO questions. Moreover, when we talk about Georgia we think about military conflicts and real threats to the international safety.

Therefore I’m trying in my report to tell you about situation in Ukraine by the language of the figures, getting after the sociological researchers. I’ve used results of the fourth researches. First was carried out in 2006 by Donetsk Information-Analytical Centre, knowing from 1991 and united experiential specialists. Second research was carried out last month and there is a mirror of the reaction of the Ukrainian people to events in Georgia at the NATO perspectives context. The research was carried out by Scientific Information-Analytical Centre NATO of the Prikarpatian National University and Scientific-Information Centre of the International Safety and Euroatlantic cooperation of the Donetsk National University. And last using study was carried out in August of 2008 by TNS Ukraine.

Thus we are getting the MAP of the national and regional relations to NATO integration at the next aspects:

Integration to NATO: key aspects and figures;
Regional specification of the Euroatlantic integration;
Conflict in Georgia and reaction of Ukrainian society.

But before I’m saying few words about Ukraine and our foreign policy, provided after foundation independent of Ukraine in 1991.

Ukraine is the large state situated in the central part of the Europe but by historic traditions belong to the Eastern Europe. All the history of Ukraine consists of the contradictions and we can tell about discussions about Ukrainian areas and lands.

Present-day Ukraine was formed at the frontiers of the Ukrainian Socialist Soviet Republic. Even when Ukraine had been the part of the USSR its frontiers changed. So, Crimea was joined to Ukraine in 1954 and Moldova from 1924 to 1940 was a part of the Soviet Ukraine as autonomy. 

Lviv and Bukovina was joined to Ukraine only in 1940 according to pact of Molotov-Ribbentrop. Today Ukraine consists of the 25 regions different by mental and ethnic features. As I’ve told before Eastern and Western parts of Ukraine have different relation to Euroatlantic integration processes. And our history gives base to conflicts and contradictions at the questions of the support this or that direction foreign policy of Ukrainian authorities.

At the map of the foreign policy of Ukraine you can see six basic directions:

1. Euro-Atlantic Integration;
2. Eurointegration;
3. Euro-Asia Integration;
4. Regional leader (Baltic and Black Sea region);
5. Active neutrality;
6. “Polyvector policy” when we want to have good relations with our East and West partners.

But now we don’t talk about two lasts ideas. It is impossible ways for the present-day Ukraine. Even pro-Russian ‘Party of the Regions’ (leader is Viktor Yanukovich) tells about active Euro-Integration understanding perspectives for Ukrainian business, goods and services in Europe.

Main directions are

Euro-Atlantic Integration with joining to NATO and than to Europe Union;
Eurointegration with joining only to Europe Union.

This March during Bukharest summit Ukraine got the NATO perspectives but experts and in Ukraine and in Brussels don’t hide their worries about Ukrainian perspectives. Some members of the NATO don’t welcome idea of the Ukraine’s joining and we haven’t united position in Ukrainian society. Moreover Ukraine faces to the next extraordinary elections to the Parliament. And we see NATO as the question of the discussions and subject of the political struggle between supporters and opponents of this idea.

And key aspects and figures brightly illustrate possible discussions. There even in Lviv, Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk regions only above 50% of the people are ready to say “YES” NATO. But in this cluster 32% don’t decide how answer. Central part of Ukraine and partly Western regions (Volyn, Zakarpatiye, Khmelnitskiy) have another situation. There here are ready to say “YES” only 28%, such quantity of the respondents doesn’t know how to answer and 44% against NATO.

And Eastern and Southern regions say NATO hard “NO”. Above 80 % of the respondents don’t see Ukraine in NATO and only 13 % don’t know – accept this way or no. General in Ukraine 58% of the respondents would vote against NATO. The study of the research centre “Sofia”, carried out in February 2008, has small difference at the negative relation. But only 9,5% percents don’t know answer. It twice is less, than two years ago but 7% of the people wouldn’t come to the polling districts. And 25% of the respondents would vote for NATO. 

According to opinions of Ukrainians NATO is

- Aggressive block, providing West expanse by militarist forces – 28%;
- USA influent instrument for the political processes over the world – 27%;
- The defensive block of the western states created for maintenance of collective safety – 22%;
- The Military-political block created by the USA after the Second World War to resist to the USSR – 20%;
- The Military-political union of the independent states united by the general system of democratic values – 15%;
- The Peace-making international organisation structure – 12%;
- A product of "cold war" – 9%;
- Have found it difficult to answer – 9%.

The stereotypical representation, leaving from Soviet times, dominates at the public opinion. And only hard work dedicated to the informing about NATO can help to change this situation. But we need few years while after intensive communications campaigns we’ll see others results. Besides for successful work Ukraine must accept and effectively provide strong state policy by NATO joining questions.

Accordingly Ukrainians estimate the activity of the NATO. The greater part of the respondents – 46% - estimates NATO activity in negative context against 22% positive view.

Also people think about negative influence NATO on the political situation over the world – 39%. 

Here I’d like to pay attention at the next data: 76% of the Ukrainians are sure that the question about future Ukraine in NATO must be passed at the national referendum.

I’ve tried to make general MAP for Ukraine. But now I’d like to tell about regional specification. As I have told before I have results of the last research. It was carried out from 12 till 15 of September in Ivano-Frankivsk and Donetsk. This map demonstrates all the difference between Eastern and Western Ukraine. Only 12% of the peoples in Donetsk are ready to say “YES” NATO and 38% want to see Ukraine as member of the defensible Union with Russia and other CIS states. Meanwhile in Ivano-Frankivsk above 60% see Ukraine in NATO and 38% are ready vote for neutral status of our country.

Mental difference is the main reason of such result. Eastern Ukraine is closer to Russia by historic, ethnic and mental values. Peoples in Donetsk mean Russia as friend, close neighbor. There are many people have relatives in Russia. The elder generations think about union with Russia as it was in Soviet Union. On the contrary, in Ivano-Frankivsk peoples see Ukraine as a part of the Europe and European structures, including NATO.  

Probable referendum results show that above 60% of the participants in Ivano-Frankivsk would vote “YES” and 70% in Donetsk would say “NO”.

In my opinion it very brightly proves that Ukrainian society needs to hard, time-consuming and intensive work which aims are creation the complete image of the NATO because we can say “NO” if we don’t know the subject well and decide to refuse not clear idea. And as we have seen higher NATO at the perception of the Ukrainians is aggressive military block, provide interests of the USA and West in general. Also activity of NATO has likely negative estimation in Ukraine.

And here we can tell about level of knowledge NATO. In my opinion it is key moment. We say “NO” but to whom?

There only 18% in Ivano-Frankivsk mean that they know about NATO enough and 33% in Donetsk. I think we have such result – twice more respondents from Donetsk mean that have good knowledge about NATO – because in Donetsk question of the NATO is the subject of the discussions. Here people have stereotypes – NATO is aggressive military block of the West countries, and change such opinion is very difficult. Of course, they have a lot of information from Russia and they support Russia by reasons which I’ve commented. Identical quantity of the interrogated in Ivano-Frankivsk and Donetsk think that they know something but not enough – 57 and 59%. It is target groups for the work by intensive informing about NATO.

And in finally I’d like to say some words about influence of the conflict in South Osetiya and Georgia at the Ukrainian society. Will these events stay the base for more intensive processes directing of joining to NATO?

According to the data people in Ivano-Frankivsk and Donetsk is sure that cooperation will happen upon difficult for Ukraine and NATO after conflict in Georgia but due different reasons. In Donetsk respondents think about strengthening anti-NATO and pro-Russian public feelings. There in Ivano-Frankivsk afraid due changing relation to Russia between world societies, including EU and NATO.

And if we combine answers 1 and 3 we can see that 37% in Ivano-Frankivsk of the respondents are sure that Ukraine has possibility to more active integration processes into NATO and strengthening proNATO moods in a society after events in Georgia. However according to research carried out by ‘Taylor Nielson Sofrez Ukraine’ in August 2008 only 18% interrogated persons said “YES” answering at the question: “Have Ukraine achieve the quick join to the NATO?”. 13% said “likely yes”. 12% of the respondents mean themselves relative opponents and more than 51% – absolute opponents. In sum quantity the opponents NATO is more than 63%.

Thus I’ve tried to speak about real situation in Ukraine. I think that Ukrainian perspectives in NATO will be understood only after finishing of the political crisis in Ukraine. For example, and in Ivano-Frankivsk and in Donetsk participants of the research mean that just resistance of the Ukrainian political forces is basic reason of the difficult processes of the integration into NATO (66% - Ivano-Frankivsk, 86% - in Donetsk). In this case west and east opponents have the identical point of view. And I hope day will come when East and West of Ukraine have common point of view not only by this question.

Nataliya Kazionnova, director, EISC (Donetsk, Ukraine)